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Understanding the Hype Cycle of a Blog

This guest post is by Nischala Murthy Kaushik.

It’s the start of a new year—the time when organizations work on their business strategies. And when you work on strategy, the one thing you definitely do is get a perspective of two facets of your operation:

  1. internal aspects of your organization
  2. what the external world is saying: your customers, your competitors, your partners, and of course independent analysts.

One thing that I definitely read this time of the year are analysts’ reports by (Gartner, Forrester, IDC, and so on.

I’m always looking for ways to learn, apply, adapt, and leverage new ideas, thoughts, and insights into my blogs. During one such pensive moment, I was mulling over whether there was any evidence of Gatner’s Hype Cycle on blogs. And yes, I believe there is!

What is the Hype Cycle?

The Gartner Hype Cycle is a methodology that’s been used effectively by Gartner since 1995. The Hype Cycle provides a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications, and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities.

The Gartner Hype Cycle methodology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time, providing insight into managing its deployment within the context of your specific business goals.

The key phases in Gartner’s Hype Cycle

Each Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology’s life cycle.

  1. Technology trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.
  2. Peak of inflated expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.
  3. Trough of disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
  4. Slope of enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.
  5. Plateau of productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.

(Check the source of this information for more details.)

The hype cycle of a blog

If you’ve been blogging, or watching the blogosphere for any length of time, you can likely see how the hype cycle applies to blogging. Let’s step through it in detail.

The trigger of a blog

Every blog is triggered by something. Technology may not always be the trigger, but it is a definite enabler. Had technology not evolved to where it is, blogging may not have existed as it does today. The trigger for a blog could be:

  • a personal need to express, to capture, to consolidate, to be heard, to create a brand, to share, to learn, to connect, to belong to a community, to leave a legacy
  • a business need for new customer acquisition, marketing, branding, customer servicing, customer engagement, or revenue generation.

The key questions you need to answer when you start a blog are:

  • Why I am starting this blog?
  • Who are my target readers?
  • What do I really want to achieve by blogging?

It’s good to have some degree of clarity on these issues at the outset. Of course, they will change and evolve with time, but you need to have baseline answers in place if you are to move forward and start your blog.

In this phase, the blogger is usually unsure about many things:

  • Will there be any reader interest in my blog?
  • How do I reach my potential readers?
  • Will I be able to generate meaningful content over a period of time?

The best piece of advice for this phase of the Hype Cycle of a Blog is to test the waters by creating a blog. Keep at blogging, read about blogging, experiment, learn, and evolve. Along the way, you will discover your own commitment and interest towards blogging.

The peak of inflated expectations for a blog

This is the phase in which one of the following happens to your blog:

  • One or more of your blog posts generates interest, a good amount of readers, shares, and comments. You almost feel like a mini-celebrity in select circles and begin to enjoy the elevated status you’ve achieved.
  • One of more of your blogs is criticized, and you receive negative feedback and comments on your thoughts, and hence the content itself, or the way you’ve presented or written the information.
  • Hardly anyone reads your blogs or ever leaves a comment.

The best piece of advice for bloggers experiencing this phase of the Hype Cycle of a Blog is:

  • Study, observe, and analyze the blogs you wish your blog was more like.
  • Re-think these questions:
    1. Why I am starting this blog?
    2. Who are my target readers?
    3. What do I really want to achieve by blogging?
    4. How should I market my blog to ensure that I reach the right audience?
  • Don’t assume that the past precedents are indications of how the future will pan out in your journey as a blogger.
  • Keep a check on your future expectations of the blog.

The trough of disillusionment of a blog

This next phase in the Hype Cycle of a Blog is probably the most crucial as it will determine how long you will continue blogging. This is the phase when most bloggers are somewhat disenchanted with the results of their blogging efforts, either due to their own lack of interest in blogging, lack of a reader base, lack of interest from the blogosphere, limited shares and comments…

The best piece of advice for this phase of the hype cycle of a blog is:

  • Don’t let one or two highs or lows determine the future of your blog. Blogging is here to stay, and the way you leverage the power of this medium in your personal or professional context is completely your choice.
  • Re-visit your own reasons for starting your blog and make any course corrections that are required. Following are the key areas that you need to critically evaluate and plan:
    • quality of content
    • frequency of posting
    • identification of your target readers
    • blog marketing.

The reality is that many bloggers quit at this stage, disillusioned by their own capabilities at blogging as well as all the hype that surrounds blogging.

Slope of enlightenment of a blog

This is the best phase in the Hype Cycle of a Blog—it’s at this point that a blogger has his or her “Eureka” moment and feels that:

  • they have found their niche in the blogosphere
  • their creative juices flow incessantly—there’s no dearth of ideas and, most importantly, they can convert anything and everything they see, hear, think, and feel into blog content
  • they have found target readers
  • most importantly, they begin to enjoy blogging.

If you have reached this point, consider yourself lucky. Many congratulations to you!

The sky is the limit for what you can achieve here. You can sell products (like books), personal services (like consulting and advisory services), your own ideas, and other’s products services and ideas. You have the potential to become a cyber-celebrity and most importantly you have the opportunity to create an impact on those who read your blogs.

The only advice for this phase of the hype cycle of a blog is this:

  • Keep a self-check on your intent for blogging. It may have evolved along the way, but don’t lose sight of your answer to the question, “Why are you blogging?”
  • Value your readers as they complete your blog. Any creative piece of work has a creator and a consumer and their mutual to co-existence is a necessity and reality. A movie has limited value till it is viewed by an audience. In the same light, the blogs you create have limited value till they are consumed by readers.

The plateau of productivity of a blog

This is the phase when you mature as a blogger, and your blog matures too—both go to a new elevated level. Your blog has a brand of its own and you have a presence in the blogosphere. Not many bloggers get here simply because they don’t spend enough time asking and answering the key questions from the start of their blogging journey.

If you’re in this phase, you don’t need any advice: you know where to go and how to get there!

Which phase of the hype cycle is your blog in? Leave a comment to let me know.

Nischala currently works at Wipro. She blogs at Nischala’s Space, Thoughts & Expressions and VERVE: The Quintessence of my Life – both of which have been added to the List of Best Indian Blogs @ http://indianbloggers.org/. In addition, she writes guest posts at sites like Problogger, FamousBloggers, The Change Blog and 12Most.com. For the full list of her guest posts, refer to the My Guest Posts Section on her blog. Nischala has completed her MBA from Indian Institute Management Bangalore [IIMB] ,one of the premier Business schools in India. She takes pride in being a Mother, Philosopher, Writer, Scholar & Guru of Life for Life and most importantly, the Chief Happiness Officer (CHO) of her LIFE J. You can follow her on Twitter @ nimu9

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Comments

  1. Todd says:

    I really like this concept. I think it really helps to try and quantify what feels like such a nebulous and frustrating process. Especially as a fairly new blogger, it can feel like searching in the dark for any kind of feedback or benchmark to evaluate how things are going. I appreciate the idea of matching it to a known cycle and staying aware as we continue fine-tuning our process. Thanks!

    • Nischala says:

      Thanks Todd. Yes your right. Awareness and comprehension of the process is the key. Good Luck in your blogging journey

  2. Dwayne@TWC says:

    I think the hype cycle you just showed is pretty awesome, Nischala. I can relate because I went thru each of these phases but for me I decided that no matter what the state of my blog I was the one who could change it with some welcomed hard work a a plan for blog growth. Good job.

    • Nischala says:

      Thanks for your kind words. Yes, hard work is an absolute MUST if you’re in it for the long haul. Of course, discipline and self motivation are the 2 other key mantras for success…

  3. Something tells me blogging is more like a rollercoaster – though perhaps it doesn’t loop the loop that fast!

    The 3/4 questions you highlighted that bloggers should ask themselves are great. I’ve actually just printed them off and stuck them in my weekly blog review folder so I can remind myself regularly about why I’m blogging.

    • Nischala says:

      It is a rollercaster and can be a lot of fun.. Once you learn to relax and focus on enjoying the journey – Of course with the destination in mind.. Wow! That’s awesome that you printed them – Thanks for that. I usually ask myself these questions anytime I feel I am unsure about What next? Good luck with your blogging.. Nischala

    • Hey Rosemary,

      I love that you have a weekly blog review folder.


      Michael

  4. Dr.Srinivas says:

    The hype cycle model is quite interesting. Being a blogger, I can relate to various phases of hype cycle . We expect more posts from you Nischala. Nice to see an Indian contribute to Problogger :-)

  5. Daniel says:

    Well written post, Nischala.

    Another of points you have brought to light are crucial in the start up of a blog.

    Having an idea of our motivations to get into blogging in the first place, can make a great amount of difference further down on our blogging path.

    • Nischala says:

      Thanks Daniel. Glad you found the post useful. Happy Blogging

  6. Michael says:

    I agree with some of the points that you have outlined here. For me, there hardest part is finding that niche where things flow comfortably. This is because I have so many different interests and ideas! But I do agree that there is some sort of a start for a blog whether it be technology or a person.

  7. Interesting ideas. I think I’m currently stuck somewhere between the peak of inflated expectations and the trough of disillusionment between my handful of blogs.

  8. I agree Michael the hardest part is finding that niche where things flow comfortably. Motivation is the key to blog writing.

  9. Wow, that’s so great to read. I have copied it into a word doc and will definitely read it from time to time to make sure I get where I want to go without fail !!! xx

  10. Emily says:

    It really helped me to think through where I am in these cycles of blogging. I know I just passed the trough of disillusionment for one of my blogs. This post puts it in perspective! Thank you!